Statistics of Polish traders for the fourth quarter of 2018. A clear improvement in results!

Polish brokerage houses that provide trading services on the Forex and CFD markets have presented their clients' results for the fourth quarter of 2018 (see results for the third quarter of 2018). This is the first statement that completely covers the period of trade with limited leverage after ESMA's product intervention (changes came into force on 1 August 2018).

Just a few days ago we presented the message of the Chamber of Brokerage Houses, which clearly indicated the outflow of European investors to non-EU brokers. It can therefore be assumed that this comparison is characterized by a smaller statistical sample. However, it is difficult to determine the level of its changes. But have the ESMA regulations actually brought about the intended effect?

A clear improvement on currencies and commodities

The tables below present the results of traders, broken down into financial instruments expressed as a percentage, which concluded transactions with Polish brokerage houses offering Forex / CFD trading. In the fourth row there is a change in percentages in relation to data presented in the third quarter, thanks to which we can see the progress (or lack thereof) in the short-term perspective.

The largest (profit / loss) values ​​were determined with the blue color in relation to all brokers in the statement.

Forex

CFD for goods

CFD on indices

CFDs on bonds and interest rates

CFD per share

Cryptocurrencies

Again, TMS Brokers, as the only Polish broker, presented statistics on the results of CFD-speculating customers based on cryptocurrencies. The percentage of earning traders amounted to 23,3%and lossy 76,7%. In relation to the third quarter, this is the result of -1% worst.

Table summary

This is a historic moment. In the case of selected brokers, clients who recorded a profit on currencies constituted the majority. 50% of the earners on the Forex market were exceeded by traders trading in Alior Bank and Noble Securities. But the rest did not stay behind, clearly approaching this level. XTB clients (slightly above 41%) were the worst in the whole list. Interestingly, all brokers saw an increase at least 5%.

On the goods, we also have a breath of optimism, where statistics have improved everywhere except Alior Bank. Over 50% of earners were in Noble Securities. The worst result was again noted by XTB, but despite that, more than 40% of traders turned out to be effective.

In the case of indices, the opposite tendency is seen. Most brokers reported much worse results than in the third quarter. BossaFX customers were the best, where the percentage of earners amounted to 46,15% outclassing competition. At the end of the rate, XTB customers are again.

For instruments based on interest rates and bonds, the data usually has a low statistical sample, which can be seen in large jumps in statistics. This time the leader turned out to be Noble Securities, where 80% of traders made a profit. BossaFX comes last. The only broker that did not publish data for this asset class is Alior Bank - probably due to the lack of any transactions made in this period by its clients.

For CFDs on stocks, BossaFX is in the first place, and XTB is in the last, third. Apart from unreliable results on interest rate instruments / bonds, CFDs on stocks fared by far the worst of the overall ranking.

Comment of Forex Club

Undoubtedly, XTB's clients performed the worst in the fourth quarter, where the percentage of earners was the lowest in four out of five categories. However, it is worth remembering that this is a broker with the largest group of clients, thanks to which the statistics themselves are also the most reliable. You can see a clear improvement in currencies and commodities - it should also be noted that the bar is constantly going up. In the case of currencies, in Q2018 3 also all brokers recorded a significant increase in profitability from approx. 8% to XNUMX%.

We waited for the moment where every second Polish trader makes money on currencies. It's hard to say whether we can expect further improvement in the direction 60-70%. It is theoretically possible, but in practice it is a rather lenient wish. In the case of indices, it can be seen that the market turned out to be less favorable, but this is probably the effect of indecision - for almost the entire fourth quarter, the main stock indices moved sideways.

Are sensational results on currencies and commodities a sign that the leverage limit has actually passed the exam? It's really hard to admit it with full confidence, because the ESMA regulations are effective "Chased out" many traders, especially those with less capital, are outside the European Union regulations in search of more leverage. Therefore, we are certainly dealing with a reduction of the statistical sample - we just don't know by how much.

Order execution - time and slippage

Once again, a group of three Polish brokers presented additional reports that concern the execution of orders in terms of time of completion, and in the case of XTB in addition in terms of the scale of slips and average spreads recorded.

In the case of Bossa the standard time of execution in the 4th quarter of 2018 was 82 milliseconds and it was the result about 6 ms worse in relation to QXNUMX. The average time includes "client orders" understood as pending orders at market prices, as well as cancellations and modifications to the parameters of these orders.

Broker Noble Securities gave in the message information on the standard time of execution of clients' orders on the OTC market (ie average time of order execution under standard conditions). In relation to the third quarter, in the 4th quarter of 2018 it amounted to 379.53 milliseconds, that is once again an improvement, which in this case amounted to 17,1 milliseconds.

Average execution time of orders in XTB in the fourth quarter 59 milliseconds and this is the same result as in the previously studied period. The Standard Order Processing Time in XTB, understood as the maximum execution time of the order in which 99% of orders were processed, was 251 milliseconds.

Slips when executing orders in XTB

The largest Polish broker was the only one to publish data on price slippage. For execution of orders in market mode on CFD instruments 61.91% the transactions were made with a price slippage equal to 0, 18.72% with positive, 19.37% with negative slip for the customer. For execution of orders in instant mode on CFD instruments 61.22% were made with 0 deviation from the order price, 19.42% with positive deviation and 19.36% with negative deviation for the customer.

XTB again presented the average value of spreads broken down into volume ranges:

1. from 0.0 to 1.0 flight,
2. from 1.01 to 5.0 flights,
3. from 5.01 to 15.0 flights,
4. from 15.01 to 30.0 flights,
5. from 30.0 flights up.

Foreign Forex brokers

Although the obligation to publish quarterly statistics is imposed by the Polish Financial Supervision Authority only on Polish brokerage houses, two foreign brokers - Admiral Markets and CMC Markets. How did traders using the services of these companies fall out? The results are presented in the tables below.

CMC Markets

The British broker presented cryptocurrency results for the second time in a row. However, they turned out worse by 2%. The fall can also be seen on indices and CFDs per share (after -6%). A clear increase can be seen on the goods (up to 19%) and on currencies (+ 7%), which quite realistically matches the statistics presented by Polish brokers.

Admiral Markets

In this case, the popular AM presented results concern only four groups of instruments. Changes to the third quarter of 2018 are mixed. A clear increase was recorded in currencies and commodities. In the case of equity indices and CFDs, as in the case of CMC clients, we can see worse results by around 6%. It is worth noting, however, that in the previous quarter there was an increase in the percentage of profitable clients for all asset classes in the amount from about 4% to 10%. Thanks to this, in the fourth quarter more than every other customer earned by trading in currencies and commodities.

Admiral Markets, as the only broker, regularly publishes detailed data on the execution of orders of its clients on-line.