Profitability statistics of Polish traders for the first quarter of 2019

The closure of the first quarter of 2019 means that Polish brokers have prepared another batch of statistics on the profits and losses of their clients for us. Does the "ESMA effect" continue and the trend of improving results has been sustained? After the very positive results of QXNUMX one could have such expectations, but the numbers will tell us the truth.

Recently, a similar report, only that the Financial Supervision Commission has prepared a longer horizon. Statistics that included the entire calendar year 2018 showed that 21,1% of traders recorded a profit. This is a record result, although only slightly better than in 2017, in which 20,3% of traders closed the balance on the plus. These statistics are undermined by the Chamber of Brokerage Houses, which prepared its own report, in which it indicated that ESMA intervention did not improve the results. However, this report is characterized by a low statistical sample, which in our opinion significantly reduces its credibility.

Stabilization on currencies

The tables below present the results of traders, broken down into financial instruments expressed as a percentage, which concluded transactions with Polish brokerage houses offering Forex / CFD trading. The fourth row shows the change in percentages in relation to the data presented in the fourth quarter of the year 2018so we can see the progress (or lack thereof) in the short-term.

The largest (profit / loss) values ​​were determined with the blue color in relation to all brokers in the statement.

Forex

CFD for goods

CFD on indices

CFDs on bonds and interest rates

CFD per share

Cryptocurrencies

Consequently, TMS Brokers, as the only Polish broker, presented statistics on the results of CFD-speculating customers based on cryptocurrencies. The percentage of earning traders amounted to 23,3%and lossy 76,7%. In relation to the fourth quarter, this is the result of + 1,6 % better.

Table summary

After a marked improvement in FX instruments in the fourth quarter of the year 2018, the time has come to stabilize statistics. All brokers presented very similar data, and the largest deviation from previous 3 months was recorded in favor of TMS Brokers (+ 1,7%). The best results were achieved by clients of DM Alior Bank, and the worst by XTB.

In the case of commodities, a significant improvement can be seen - in mForex and BossaFX even double-digit. We have not seen such great and "equal" results with Polish brokers yet. Only in DM Alior Bank and XTB there were more losing clients than earning ones, and the difference between the two companies was only symbolic (0,1%).

Noble Securities stands out among clients speculating on stock indices, where the percentage of profitable traders is over 46% (we observed a similar disproportion 3 months earlier - then BossaFX was the leader). Second in line is mForex, and the stake is closed by the largest Polish broker - XTB.

For instruments based on interest rates and bonds, the data usually has a low statistical sample, which is clearly confirmed by large fluctuations in the results of most brokers. Only in XTB the percentage remained stable, although at the same time the negative tone remained - 57% of clients recorded a loss. TMS Brokers clients did the best, where 2/3 of them earned.

For CFD, XTB turned out to be the leader, noting a significant, almost 13, improvement. The anti-leader was TMS Brokers with record-low result (81,7% losing).

Order execution - time and slippage

Again, only three Polish brokers have provided additional reports regarding the execution of orders in terms of execution time. XTB is the only company expanding this data with information on the scale of slips and average spreads.

In the case of Bossa the standard time of execution in the first quarter of 2019 was 88 milliseconds and it was the result about 6 ms worse compared to the fourth quarter of last year. In the last two quarters, this result is already worse by 12 milliseconds, which means that in six months the execution time has worsened by about 15%.

The average time includes 'client orders' understood as pending orders at market prices, as well as cancellations and modifications to the parameters of these orders.

Broker Noble Securities gave in the message information on the standard time of execution of clients' orders on the OTC market (ie average time of order execution under standard conditions). In relation to the fourth quarter of 2018, in the first quarter of the current year, the execution was on average 385,22 milliseconds,. The previous report reported an improvement of 17 milliseconds. This time it is the result is worse by less than 6 milliseconds.

Average execution time of orders in XTB in the first quarter of the year 2019 amounted to 139 milliseconds and this result is much worse than in the previous analyzed period (59 milliseconds). Standard Order Fulfillment Time in XTB, understood as the maximum order execution time, in which 99% of orders were executed, was 582 milliseconds and this is a result over 2 times worse than in the fourth quarter.

Slips when executing orders in XTB

The largest Polish broker was the only one to publish data on price slippage. For execution of orders in market mode on CFD instruments 66.02% the transactions were made with a price slippage equal to 0, 16,74% with positive, 17,24% with negative slip for the customer. For execution of orders in instant mode on CFD instruments 61.40% were made with 0 deviation from the order price, 19.28% with positive deviation and 19.32% with negative deviation for the customer. Differences in relation to the fourth quarter are marginal.

XTB again presented the average value of spreads broken down into volume ranges:

1. from 0.0 to 1.0 flight,
2. from 1.01 to 5.0 flights,
3. from 5.01 to 15.0 flights,
4. from 15.01 to 30.0 flights,
5. from 30.0 flights up.

Foreign Forex brokers

Although the obligation to publish quarterly statistics is imposed by the PFSA only on Polish brokerage houses, the shares are regularly joined by two foreign brokers - Admiral Markets and CMC Markets. How did traders using the services of these companies fall out? The results are presented in the tables below.

CMC Markets

The British broker again presented additional results on cryptocurrencies. However, they turned out to be better by 6% compared to the previous quarter. The deterioration of the results can only be seen on goods - in spite of the results presented by Polish DM. There is a clear increase in CFDs on stocks (as much as 20%) and on bonds and interest rates (+ 13%).

Admiral Markets

The results of Admiral Markets customers do not differ significantly from the trends observed in Polish brokers. The first quarter of 2019 brought improvements in goods and deterioration in currencies. However, it is still positive data showing that about half of the traders recorded a profit. The worst hit the indexes, which also reflects the state of affairs visible in Polish DM.

Admiral Markets, as the only broker, regularly publishes detailed data on the execution of orders of its clients on-line.